Client Brief and
Recommendation
Client Name = WestPakAvocado
Client Linkedin = https://www.linkedin.com/company/west-pak-avocado-inc-/
Request Date= 28/10/2022
Recommendation = WestPakAvocado a organic avocado
distributor in the US, has requested a report to monitor New Orlean/
Mobile Hass organic avocado market. Distributors should pay attention on
price gap of organic and conventional price, see the timeline trend, and
product trend.
Word Count = 393
Primary
Investigation
in 2019, Hass Avocado Board has released a market opportunity matrix
that indicates New Orleans to have a strong potrential of growing and
development strategy that needs to be address selectively. Henceforth,
this report will focus on analyzing and showing the New Orlean’s market
trend to support market development for WestPakAvocado.
Dataset Overview
Source
The data used in this analysis was downloaded from the Hass Avocado
Board website, which compiles the sales of avocado from 2015-to may
2018.
Data cleaning
The original data accumulates the progress in the USA overall,
however for the sake of analysing only New Orleans this report has been
filtered.
Initial Data
Analysis
# Load packages
library(tidyverse)
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2)
#quick look at the top 5 row
avocado %>% filter(region=="NewOrleansMobile",type=="organic") %>% arrange(AveragePrice) %>% slice_head(n=5)
## Date year month week AveragePrice Total.Volume X4046 X4225 X4770
## 1 18/01/2015 2015 January 3 0.98 4739 256 2 0
## 2 30/08/2015 2015 August 34 1.08 4600 206 136 0
## 3 03/07/2016 2016 July 29 1.18 3290 421 11 0
## 4 06/08/2017 2017 August 34 1.18 6994 128 71 0
## 5 13/08/2017 2017 August 34 1.20 8220 164 93 0
## Total.Bags Small.Bags Large.Bags XLarge.Bags type region
## 1 4480 4480 0 0 organic NewOrleansMobile
## 2 4257 4257 0 0 organic NewOrleansMobile
## 3 2857 2830 26 0 organic NewOrleansMobile
## 4 6794 6781 13 0 organic NewOrleansMobile
## 5 7962 7945 16 0 organic NewOrleansMobile
Size,Classification, Variable
dim(avocado)
## [1] 18249 15
| Date |
date of observation |
chr |
| year |
year of observation |
chr |
| month |
month of observation |
chr |
| week |
week of observation |
chr |
| AveragePrice |
average price of a single avocado |
num |
| Total.Volume |
total numbers of avocado sold |
num |
| X4046 |
Total of code 4046 avocado sold (small) |
int |
| X4225 |
Total of code 4225 avocado sold (Large) |
int |
| X4770 |
Total code 4770 sold (all size) |
int |
| Total.Bags |
Total numbers of bag sold |
int |
| Small.Bags |
Total numbers of small bag sold |
int |
| Large.Bags |
Total numbers of Large bag sold |
int |
| XLarge.Bags |
Total numbers of XL bag sold |
int |
| type |
growing method (conventional/organic) |
chr |
Research Conduct
Organic Avocado quantitative trend in New Orleans From 2015 to 2018
Total Volume Sold
in the First 13 Weeks (2015 to 2018)
avocado %>%
filter(region == "NewOrleansMobile", type=="organic", year== "2015":"2017") %>%
group_by(year) %>%
summarise(grand_total_volume = (sum(Total.Volume))) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = year,
y = grand_total_volume,
group = year,
fill = grand_total_volume)) +
geom_col() +
scale_y_continuous() +
scale_fill_viridis_c(begin = 0.45, end = 0.55) +
labs(title = "organic Hass Avocado Unit Sales (comparison from the first 13 week) ",
subtitle = "New Orleans Mobile (2015 to 2017)",
x = "",
y = "Units sold") +
guides(fill = "none")

Organic sales in general has been increasing, 2018 data is filtered
because it hasn’t collect a full year worth of data.
What is The
Relation Between Conventional prices and Organic price
The next graph will inspect the relation between conventional pricing
and organic pricing
library(plotly)
THEORGANIC = avocado %>% filter (region=="NewOrleansMobile") %>% filter(type=="organic") %>% mutate (revenue=AveragePrice*Total.Volume)
THECONVENTIONAl = avocado %>% filter (region=="NewOrleansMobile",type=="conventional") %>% mutate (revenue=AveragePrice*Total.Volume)
combined = cbind(o_p = THEORGANIC$AveragePrice, c_p = THECONVENTIONAl$AveragePrice, o_v= THEORGANIC$Total.Volume)
combined= as.data.frame(combined) %>% mutate(pd= o_p-c_p)
scp = ggplot(combined, aes(x = pd,y = o_v))+geom_point(color="dark green")+geom_smooth(method = "lm") + ggtitle("Total Sales against price difference of organic and conventional avocado",subtitle = "New Orleans Mobile (2015-2018(May))") + labs(x="average price gap ($) ", y="Volume Sales")
ggplotly(scp)
Further Test with Regression test
The Regression test gives : y= 5722.6−4576.1X For H0: β1=0, and has a
p-value= 5.07×10−15.
the function implies that there is a negative linear relationship, a
gap of one dollar will reduce sales by 4576 avocado. Meaning, when the
price gap is bigger sales volume goes down.
Summary
-Organic consumption has gone up which indicates that it is growing
in popularity and market at New Orleans/Mobile.
-based on the graph and regression test, organic avocado sales is
highly influenced by the price different between conventional and
organic.
Identifying crucial marketing strategy and consumer preference
Trajectory of
Avocado sales over time
Hass Avocado promotions within the united states has achieved rapid
increase per capita consumption in the past few year by implementing
economic strategy within local market areas (Carmen et al., 2017)
therefore identifying crucial time is important.
library (plotly)
scatter.plot <- avocado %>% filter (region == "NewOrleansMobile",type=="organic") %>% mutate(revenue= AveragePrice*Total.Volume) %>% ggplot(aes(x=week ,y=Total.Volume, group=year, color=year))+geom_point()+scale_y_continuous()+scale_color_viridis_d(begin = 0.45, end = 1) + labs(title = "Avocado volume (consumption) in New Orleans Mobile overtime",
subtitle = "New Orleans/Mobile (2015 to 2018 (May))",
caption = "Source: Hass Avocado Board",
x = "",
y = "Organic Avocado Volume",
color = "") + facet_wrap(.~year)+theme(text=element_text(size=10))
ggplotly(scatter.plot)
the trend line indicates that over time the total volumes of avocado
sold has increased by 2018,in the US specific events influence the
consumption of avocado (Mohammad, 2021), with it peaking on : -
Superbowl on february
cinco de mayo which usually impacts consumption does not lead to
huge spikes because the demographic in New Orleans is predominantly
African america/black.
generally sales goes down from November to December, notably
thanks giving and Christmas holidays still led to small spikes
Product specific
analysis
avocado %>% filter (type=="organic", region== "NewOrleansMobile",year=="2015":"2017") %>% group_by(year) %>% summarise (total4046=sum(X4046),total4225=sum(X4225), total4770=sum(X4770))%>% pivot_longer(cols=total4046:total4770,names_to="plu",values_to="pluvolume")%>% mutate(plu=case_when(plu=="total4046"~"4046(small)",plu=="total4225"~"4225(large)",plu=="total4770"~"4770(mix)")) %>% ggplot(aes(x=year,y=pluvolume,fill=plu))+geom_col(position="dodge")+scale_y_continuous()+scale_fill_viridis_d(begin = 0.45, end = 1) +labs(title = "Organic Hass Avocado Unit Sales by PLU",subtitle = "New Orleans/Mobile (2015 to 2017)", x = "", y = "Units sold",fill = "")

small avocado is favored by consumers in New Orleans/Mobiles
limitation
- the avocado trendline does not explain other crucial variable that
factors such as seasonal harvest and price changes therefore further
research to identify other contributing variable is recommended.
Summary
- Marketing strategy should take account on important celebratory
event
- Small Avocado is favored in New Orleans/Mobile
Acknowledgments
Ambrozek, C., L, T., & sexton, S. R. J. (2018, November 5).
Five-Year Evaluation of The Hass Avocado Board’s Promotion Programs:
2013 – 2017. hassavocadoboard.com. https://hassavocadoboard.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/hab-latest-independent-economic-evaluation-2018.pdf
Hab 2019 market opportunity matrix. (2019). hassavocadoboard.com. https://hassavocadoboard.com/wp-content/uploads/hab-2019-market-opportunity-matrix.pdf
Mohammad, S. (2021, December 14). Hass Avocado Data Analysis for the
years 2015–2020 — Part 1. Medium. https://medium.com/@msajida333/hass-avocado-data-analysis-for-the-years-2015-2020-part-1-e53b81d3b4f2
producemarketguide.com. (n.d.). Retrieved October 27, 2022, from https://www.producemarketguide.com/produce/organic-avocados
appendix
I decide my client to be WestPakAvocado that distributes organic
avocado, thus the content of my report focuses on organic avocado side
of the data. WestPakAvocado distributes to all countries in the US, thus
I decided to search the Hass Avocado Board matrix to see which area
needs further marketing aid an one of them was New Orleans/Mobile. My
statistical analysis is mostly qualitative, because I want to focus on
helping marketing strategy, the numerical analysis is done through
linear modelling to identify whether price gap between organic and
conventional avocado would influence the sales volume.